Wellington County Real Estate Outlook: What 15 Years of Data Tell Us — and What’s Coming Next

When was the last time you took a few minutes and looked back?

Hear me out on this and don’t just discount the following as the ramblings of a cranky old man, although these days that’s even getting hard to avoid.

I started in the real estate industry back in the late 1980’s. It was the time before personal computers and cell phones were part of the mainstream. My database consisted of a thing called a rolodex and our MLS® system was a printed bi-weekly catalogue of homes 8 up on a page and complete with a newspaper grade black and white photo of the front of the house.

The real estate market in the 90’s was marked by double digit mortgage rates and days on market was measured in months, not days. Every Friday we’d get a delivery from the real estate board with either the newest MLS catalogue or a supplement which gave us an update on what was new the past 10 days. Part of my job each day in managing my business was to get the daily hotsheet and mark up my catalogue as to what sold or had come off the market.

We’ve come a long way since 1990.

Wellington County, including Guelph, Fergus and Elora has seen an extraordinary real estate transformation over the last 35 years. But as we look toward the rest of 2025 and beyond, questions around interest rates, trade instability, and buyer confidence are adding new complexity to our local market.

Today’s post is going to focus on the past 15 years in the local market. We’ve reviewed the numbers, matched them against key economic indicators, and considered what it all means for you

📊 A Look Back: How Far We’ve Come Since 2010

Let’s start with a quick snapshot of how the market has shifted from April 2010 to April 2025:

💡Insight: Prices have nearly tripled since 2010, and have softened by about 17% since their 2022 peak. Inventory has grown, and sales activity has cooled, indicating that we’ve shifted from a frenzied seller’s market to a more balanced and I’d suggest buyer’s market.

What’s Pressuring the Market Right Now?

While the market data offers historical context, today’s environment brings fresh variables like tariffs, political instability and expanding regional conflicts. All of which could have a significant impact on our economy and local housing market.

Tariff Threats & Trade Instability

Recent tensions over trade and tariffs — particularly those affecting automotive and manufacturing sectors — are creating insecurity in Southern Ontario. Guelph and surrounding areas, with deep ties to manufacturing (think: Honda’s paused battery plant), are feeling the effects of this uncertainty.

2. Interest Rates Holding Steady

Despite hopes of rate relief, borrowing costs remain relatively high. Five-year mortgage rates, while certainly not the double digits of the 1990s, continue to hover around 5.5%–6%, keeping monthly payments elevated and stretching affordability for many buyers.

3. Shaky Consumer Confidence

Even with low unemployment, consumer spending is cautious. Many would-be move-up buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for economic clarity or a break in borrowing costs. Part of the problem is a 7/24 hour news cycle that is focused on negativity and fear.

Where Are We Headed? (6-Month to 5-Year Outlook)

Here’s how we see things shaping up for Wellington County real estate based on current and projected conditions:

Short-Term (Next 6–12 Months):

Prices are likely to stay relatively flat or dip slightly in certain segments.
Transaction volume will remain below historical norms as buyers delay decisions.
Inventory could continue to rise, especially if more homeowners list in advance of mortgage renewals.

Medium to Long-Term (1–5 Years):

Southern Ontario’s fundamentals — strong immigration, job growth in tech, demand for family housing — are still solid.
If interest rates begin to ease in 2026 or beyond, we could see a return of buyer competition and upward pressure on prices.
Affordability concerns may shift demand toward towns like Fergus and Elora, or to multi-generational and income-supporting homes. We’re already seeing this in the market as buyers continue to migrate from the GTA to more affordable parts of Southern Ontario and elsewhere in Canada.

What This Means for You

For Sellers:

This is not a “set it and forget it” market. Sellers must:

Price accurately based on today’s market, not yesterday’s peak.
Invest in presentation, repairs, and marketing.
Be open to conditional offers and longer timelines.

For Buyers:

You’re in a more balanced market — and that’s good news:

More choice, less pressure, in most cases.
Opportunity to negotiate.
But don’t wait too long — when rates fall, competition could heat up again quickly.

Let’s Talk Strategy

The market is more nuanced than ever. There are plenty of opportunities in our market place. It takes a lot more work and some creativity to winnow out the true deals. Having been through a similar market in the ‘90s, there were opportunities then and those that took advantage of those opportunities have made out considerably better than those that chose the sidelines. The parallels and challenges in today’s market are not any easier than “back in the day”.

At Keller Williams Home Group Realty, our team of agents has been guiding Wellington County residents through every kind of market for decades.

Whether you’re planning to move this year, next year, or just want to understand your home’s current value, let’s talk. We’ll help you cut through the noise, make informed decisions, and create a real estate strategy that works for you.

📞 Book your personalized consultation today. We’re here to help — Fiercely Local, Always In Your Corner.

Enjoy the weekend,

Paul

Appointment Calendar: https://calendly.com/homegrouprealty

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$900,000

Detached Two Story
4 Bedrooms
2 Full Baths
1,646 Above Grade Sqft

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Listings courtesy of Keller Williams Home Group Realty Brokerage

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