December 10, 2021

NOVEMBER STATS: Holiday Break

Historically speaking, the holiday season is a quiet time in our local real estate market – between busy schedules and downtime with their families, many buyers and sellers opt to put their real estate plans on pause until the new year. In the past 5 years, the month of December has consistently seen the lowest number of active listings for the entire year: 109 in 2016, 200 in 2017, 213 in 2018, 171 in 2019, and just 61 active listings in 2020 (in contrast, the high point of the year generally lands in the early summer months around 300-400 listings).

As we head into December of 2021, we expect the number of active listings to decline from November’s 103 listings. At the same time, we are wary of that number plummeting too far down, as last year’s ‘perfect storm’ is still fresh in our minds: the number of active listings fell a shocking 58% from November 2020 to December 2020, and when buyers re-entered the market in January 2021, the inventory levels had been severely depleted. The result? A dramatic 11% month-over-month increase in the median sale price from December to January.

So, with inventory levels still at dramatic lows – the number of active listings in November 2021 was down 29% from November 2020 – do we expect another dramatic price increase? The simple answer is: it might depend what segment of the market you’re looking at.

*(All residential properties in the City of Guelph from November 1st, 2020 to November 30th, 2021)*

While the supply (number of new listings) has been decreasing month-over-month across the region
in the freehold market (mostly detached and semi-detached homes), the demand (number of home sales) has also been waning. This balance has kept prices relatively stable in the short-term, and we don’t expect a major deviation from this trend in the coming months.

That said, the situation looks a bit different in the condominium market (which includes apartment-style condos, as well as most townhomes). While almost every other area of our local markets are seeing the number of home sales down month-over-month and year-over-year, the demand for condos has increased across the board. Perhaps a sign of the persistence of first-time home buyers to enter the market, and only time will tell if we will see significant price increases in this segment of the market as we move through the winter months.