Market Analysis For Guelph & Wellington Real Estate: Trends from January to May 2025

The summer solstice is fast approaching and as we near the midpoint of 2025 in the Guelph and Wellington Region real estate market, it’s time to step back and look at the overall market. Depending on where you get your news or who you listen to, the real estate market has presented a mixed picture—one that reflects both underlying strength and early signals of price resistance, especially at certain price brackets. Let’s break it down.

Listings vs. Sales – Pricing Misalignment Emerging

Active Listings (June):

606 total
Median List Price: $789,000
Average List Price: $891,838
25th/75th Percentiles: $598,800 / $999,999
Sales (Jan–May 2025):
Median Sale Price: $777,889
Average Sale Price: $794,257
Median SP/LP: 99%

Takeaway:

There’s a clear upward skew in listing prices relative to sale prices. The average list price is $97,581 higher than the average sale price—a sign that sellers are optimistic or pricing aspirationally, or Realtors are behind the market in pricing knowledge and strategies. The median sales price to list price ratio is still very high, 99% which suggests that listings when priced well are selling very close to list price. The disconnect is that listings are being priced with an expected 89% SP/LP ratio, which suggests sellers/realtors are using old data to price in today’s market.

Days on Market – Discrepancy Between Listing and Sales Speed

Active Listings:

Average DOM: 38
Median DOM: 25

Sales (YTD):

Average DOM: 29
Median DOM: 18

Takeaway:

Homes that are selling are doing so faster than the broader pool of listings, especially those priced appropriately. The median DOM of 18 days for sold listings versus 25 for actives indicates that well-priced homes are still moving quickly, but overpricing is causing others to linger. Going back to our last point about the discrepancy between listing price and sales price, the trend we are seeing is that listings are being cancelled and then relisted multiple times with price reductions, in other words chasing the market. This would explain the growing days on market.

Inventory Clustered Around the Edges

Looking at the Active Listings by Price Range chart:

The $500k–$599k and $700k–$799k brackets are saturated with listings (99 and 96 respectively). These are mostly Condos and Stacked Townhouses.

The $600k–$699k and $800k–$899k ranges also show heavy clustering and in this case it’s detached and semi-detached homes.
Luxury segments ($1M+) still have significant inventory: 67 listings from $1.0M–$1.25M and 40 between $1.25M–$1.5M.

Takeaway:

The market is top-heavy, with more inventory accumulating in the upper price points. Meanwhile, the sweet spot for buyer activity appears just under the $800k mark, aligning with the median sale price of $777,889. The $500k–$799k band seems most competitive and productive.

Buyer Confidence & Activity

688 sales in 5 months(2025) = ~137/month pace.

27.5% sold above list – an indication that demand still pushes certain listings into competitive territory.
$546M in total dollar volume reflects robust buyer engagement.

Takeaway:

This is not a weak market—it’s price-sensitive. Well-positioned homes under $800k are selling efficiently and sometimes competitively.

Above that, the market slows as pricing surpasses what buyers perceive as fair value. Activity, 137 sales/month average, is well below historical averages, which we believe reflects on the price sensitivity that a large part of the market is showing.

Subtle, Yet Crucial Trends Emerging

Shift Toward Value-Oriented Segments

Buyers are clearly favouring listings under $800,000. This aligns with affordability constraints and the psychological pricing wall at the $800k–$900k range. We’ve watched listings just above this threshold (e.g., $899k–$999k) struggle to attract buyers unless they offered unique features or were very competitively priced.

Saturation Risk in Specific Price Brackets

The high volume of listings between $500k and $800k, with the vast majority of those listings being condos and stacked townhouse products, indicates increasing competition among sellers. Sharp pricing and marketing strategies are needed here in order to stand out.

Luxury Listings Need a Longer Runway

The luxury inventory above $1M isn’t turning over nearly as quickly. These properties require longer time horizons and distinctive marketing, especially given the slower sales pace at the high end.

Implications for Buyers and Sellers

For Sellers:

Right-pricing matters more than ever. Listings slightly above market aren’t attracting attention and most importantly offers.
Be cautious about anchoring pricing to January–April 2022 levels. The current median sale price is nearly $172,000 below the 2022 peak.
Listings under $800k that are clean, staged, and priced right are likely to receive attention and offers.
For Buyers:

Timing is your friend—especially in the $800k+ range where there is room to negotiate. Our brokerage has taken a page from the commercial real estate book and have been coaching our agents to provide a deal/term sheet with their offer presentations. In other words, providing recent comparable sales data and reasons why a seller would want to accept the buyer’s offer. Too often buyer’s offers are being submitted to the listing agent and seller without context or a compelling reason to want to accept the offer. If you’re working with the right agent, they should be ensuring your offer is strongly presented.
Opportunities exist to purchase upgraded homes with longer DOM for under list. We’re flooded with information and often the best deals fall off buyer’s radar because of the noise in the market place.
Stay informed about new listings under $800k as they are selling the quickest.

Final Thought & Call to Action

The Guelph and Wellington county real estate market in 2025 is behaving like a confident but cautious marketplace. Buyers are active, but strategic. Sellers still hold strong value, but must align with market expectations.

📞 If you’re thinking of selling and want to position your home to attract real buyers—not just watchers—let’s talk.

📲 Or if you’re a buyer looking to move before the fall, we can show you where the best values are emerging.

Let’s set up a personalized consultation today to discuss your next move—strategically.

Book a discovery call today.

At Keller Williams Home Group Realty, we’re fiercely local and results driven.

Enjoy the weekend,

Paul

Appointment Calendar: https://calendly.com/homegrouprealty

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