The Fall Weather Report - Issue 381

It’s the Thanksgiving long weekend and while we have a lot of gratitude to go around, is any of it being directed towards the real estate market?

The September Market stats have just been released and the story is an interesting one to say the least.

This is a story of a balanced real estate market vs the catastrophic declines that are currently being used in the headlines.

We’ve talked about this often in the past years that the headlines and stories put out by the national press are written from an attention-grabbing perspective - and we all know that negative news does a better job of grabbing attention than any good news story.

The Guelph real estate market in particular has been in overdrive for the past 3 years, which means sales happened at a rapid pace, time on market was counted in the hours vs days or weeks, and inventory was but a sliver of what was/is considered ‘normal’.

Here’s an analogy:

You’ve been driving for several hours on the 401 at 120 kmph and then, as you approach your destination and have to get onto secondary roads, you drop your speed by 35% to 80 kmph. Suddenly, you feel as if you’re moving at a snail’s pace when really, you’re still driving faster than normal.

We’ve become so accustomed to a market moving at warp speed that any sort of slowdown is going to feel like the bottom has dropped out.

Yes, sales in Guelph are down 27% from this time last year and are down 37% from September 2018. Those are significant decreases and, taken on their own, would suggest the market is in serious decline.

Yet, the median sales price for homes in Guelph is up 4.3% from last year and 56% from 2018 while inventory levels continue to build as well with 310 new listings in September (up 22% from 2022 and down 2% from 2018). If you take these numbers in context, the conclusion you’ll come to is a balanced market with neither Seller or Buyer at any particular advantage.

Detached, Semi-detached and Condo Apartments in the Guelph market are all telling a similar story of being balanced.

Regionally, in Centre Wellington, KW, and Cambridge similar stories are playing out. We’re in a balanced market with growing opportunities for both sides of the equation.

Keep in mind at the city and regional level we are talking about the median and in some cases overall averages. The shift to a balanced market place means analytics and research will uncover where the true value is. Where this can get interesting, and where the true opportunities lie, is when you drill down to individual neighbourhoods and housing types. Unfortunately, there’s not enough space to go into that kind of detail here.

If you are interested in these types of opportunities, we can engage with you on a 1-on-1 basis to discover neighbourhoods, price points and housing types that will present you with the opportunities that exist for you - and that you probably wouldn’t even be aware of unless you were working with a local expert.

The headlines & news stories you’re reading from a third party source may not bring you to the correct conclusions that accurately reflect what’s happening in the market.

Over the years I’ve learned that a balanced market, even a “bad” market will present opportunities for those willing to do the research and put in the work to look for the openings in the market. One of the best ways to do this is to speak to a local, professional Realtor who will be able to show you the neighbourhoods and the background research that will put you in a superior position to negotiate a good deal and filter out any white noise.

Enjoy the Thanksgiving long weekend. There is a lot to be grateful for in this community and this country. There are challenges, no question, but in my opinion, it is the challenges that make the rewards of your hard work all the more satisfying and gives you so much to be thankful for.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Paul

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