November 05, 2021

OCTOBER STATS

October sale prices were on the rise from September in nearly every segment of the market throughout the region. Guelph’s median sale price (all home types) landed at $800,000 – an almost 9% increase month-over-month, and an incredible 30% increase over October 2020’s figure. The number of new listings to the Guelph market decreased 8.9% from September to October, while the number of home sales saw a 3.3% increase. This correlation of increased demand, decreased supply and rising prices has been well documented in our local market over the last several years. Taking a look at the previous year, you can see this exemplified in January’s 11% month-over-month increase in median sale price following December’s dramatically low inventory levels, and again in June, with a 4% drop in pricing after May’s peak inventory.

We see a similar trend in freehold homes in the Tri-Cities and Guelph, with the number of new listings down month-over-month and the number of home sales up as much as 24% from September. At the same time, median sale prices have increased around 5% since September in Guelph, Kitchener and Cambridge, and an astonishing 25-30% in all four cities since October of 2020.

*(All residential properties in the City of Guelph from October 1st, 2020 to October 31st, 2021)*

With the number of active listings in October at its lowest point this year (barring January) and an unbelievable 34% lower than October 2020 levels, we take a look at activity levels in the month of October over the past several years. A clear shift can be seen in 2019, where the gap between the number of new listings and the number of home sales narrows dramatically, signalling an increasingly competitive market. The sales to new listing ratio reflects the escalating market conditions; in 2017 and 2018 we were already experiencing a seller’s market, with a ratio above 60%. As this ratio climbs above 80% (and as of this past month, approaches 90%), we are in the midst of what is considered a hot seller’s market – and buyers are certainly feeling the heat.

While at first glance, October of 2021 appears to have a healthier gap between the new listings and sales, it is important to note that September 2020 saw the greatest number of new listings come to market for the entire year (369) while September of 2021 lands well below the year-to-date average of 314 new listings, with just 259 new homes on the market.