APRIL STATS: Signs of a Cooling Market?

Activity levels – the number of new listings and homes sold – are down month-over-month across the region, albiet following a record-setting March.  In the City of Guelph, the rate at which sales decreased actually outpaced the rate at which listings decreased – we saw 12.6% fewer homes go to market in April vs. March, whereas the number of homes sold dropped by 18.9% month-over-month.  Alongside this slight curb in buyer demand, we saw a 0.6% decrease in median sale price.

You can see how interconnected home values and buyer demand are, exemplified twice in the past year: in both July and December, the number of homes sold was higher than the number of new listings, clearing out an already depleted home inventory.  The following month, we saw a significant jump in median sale price (7.6% and 10.9%, respectively).  What followed next was a spike in new listings (including a new record set in March 2021, with 451 new listings), and then, home values stabilizing again.  With inventory levels currently at a record low (a trend that has been mounting for a decade), it is clear that a steady stream of new listings to the market is a critical factor in maintaining sustainable growth.

(All residential properties in the City of Guelph from April 1st, 2020 to April 30th, 2021)

(All residential properties in the City of Guelph from April 1st, 2020 to April 30th, 2021)


While activity levels saw significant month-over-month decreases from March to April, a historical view continues to tell the story of one of the busiest years in history unfolding in our local market.  Looking at the month of April – the heart of the spring market – over the past 6 years shows record levels of both the number of homes listed and the number of sales.  If you’re looking for clues about where pricing is going, a great number to watch is the difference between these two measures.


The sales to new listings ratiothe number of sales divided by number of new listings, over a three month period – is a great indicator of how balanced a market is.  A balanced market has a ratio between 40% and 55%; a seller’s market falls between 55% and 80%, and anything above is considered a hot seller’s market.  This measure hit an astonishing new peak in January of 2021 at 93% (in correlation with the 10.9% jump in median sale price, above), and has since begun to soften as inventory rebuilds (the figure was 88% in February, 79% in March, and 80% in April).  

(All residential properties in the City of Guelph from January 1st, 2016 to April 30th, 2021)

(All residential properties in the City of Guelph from January 1st, 2016 to April 30th, 2021)

Read the full APRIL 2021 MARKET REPORT below:

This monthly report includes:

  • Sales stats for all Guelph home types

  • Price breakdowns for all 18 Guelph neighbourhoods

  • Township comparisons: Puslinch, Guelph/Eramosa, and Centre Wellington

  • Freehold & condo breakdowns for Guelph, Kitchener, Waterloo & Cambridge

 

THE PAST WEEK IN THE GUELPH REAL ESTATE MARKET


This past week in our local market, 60 homes were sold. We continue to look at the past week in reference to three key weeks – the same week in 2019 and 2020, plus the previous week this year. It’s interesting to note that we’re currently in the midst of tradition Spring Market season, and the lockdowns of Spring 2020 brought an abrupt pause, while our current lockdown situation has been paired with a booming Spring 2021 market. See the numbers below.

If you’re a subscriber, you’ll find the link to all home sales in the past week in your email. If you’re new to the blog, sign up below to receive instant access to these reports.

Mailchimp Thumbnails - Blog (1).png
 

NOT A SUBSCRIBER?

Sign up for our weekly blog and receive up-to-date information on local market conditions, plus receive exclusive reports with each week’s homes sales & sales price, for all of Guelph’s neighbourhoods and nearby cities. Sign up below to get instant access to this week’s sale prices.

 

FEATURED PROPERTY:

8183 WELLINGTON ROAD 22

GUELPH/ERAMOSA, ON

5+3 BED / 4.5 BATH / 3,163 SQ FT

Looking for more space? You’ve found it! This incredible bungalow rests on 26 acres of land, just 20 minutes north of Guelph. The sprawling main floor layout is perfect for multi-generational living, large families, and home office setups. Plus, the finished basement offers plenty of space for rec room, bedrooms & storage/workshop, and walks up to the 2 car garage. This impressive property features 20 acres of private forest trails, two more detached garages, a great backyard patio and pool, and plenty of yard space! Not only does this home offer plenty of space, but it has the added environmental benefits of geothermal heating and cooling, and an owned solar panel system. More room than you can ever imagine, and a paradise of a property!

Contact listing agent for inquiries & showings:

Jeff Moisan (519) 760-3227


 

Learn more about the Home Group Realty Journey

 

KEEP READING