FEBRUARY STATS

The February numbers are in and the local and national real estate market is running at a feverish pace. January was a record-breaking month for both new listings and sales within Guelph. Not a surprising statement, given the level of activity we’ve had in this market for the past eight months. Other than the brief two-month shut down when the pandemic struck, the Guelph real estate market chart has been looking like a hockey stick.

Despite the 25.6% and 14.6% year-over-year increase in new listings and sales, respectively, we were still faced with the lowest opening inventory levels for February in the past 10 years. February started out with a record low of 81 homes for sale in the entire city of Guelph, 51% lower than the same period a year ago. It’s going to take a lot more people listing their homes in order to dig out of the inventory hole this market is currently in.

The bright news in February is that prices moderated, slightly. With the additional inventory, the median sales price in February was only 1.7% higher than January, whereas January’s prices were an incredible 12.6% higher than December 2020. As long as demand remains as strong as it has been, and supply doesn’t replenish at a significantly faster rate than sales, we are likely in store for a spring market that will make last year look like a breeze.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve taken a deep dive into what is driving this market and investigated the danger of a significant reset in the housing market. There’s no denying that prices have increased incredibly over the past 10 years. Then, so has the size of the market and the number of people looking to own a home or an investment property. While some would argue low interest rates are the primary driver of this market exuberance, the interest rates have somewhat lessened the impact of rising prices. Double digit price increases are not sustainable, that we can all agree on. However, I’m not convinced we are in a bubble that is going to burst and wreak havoc within the Canadian economy.

There are too many other positive factors that are capable of sustaining long term positive growth in the real estate market. The millennial demographic and long term immigration growth will continue to provide growth opportunities in real estate. A recent report by Boston Consulting showed Canada as the number one destination for workers with master’s degrees or doctorates. The report also indicates that Canada is the first choice for those with digital training or expertise, and for those under 30. All of these, characteristics that companies and countries prize.

The long and short of what current market statistics show, and the long term trends reveal, is that real estate remains and will continue to be amongst the most desired asset classes to own.

Our advice? Don’t count on a massive market correction anytime soon. Best case scenario will be a small decline in prices as inventory levels build and the current wave of buyers work through the marketplace. Long term, there are a lot of future homeowners and investors making their way to the local real estate market.

VIEW THE FULL FEBRUARY MARKET REPORT BELOW:

THE PAST WEEK IN THE GUELPH REAL ESTATE MARKET

Last week in our local market, 70 homes sold. Same week last year, we saw 57 home sales.

The median home last week was 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and 1,500 square feet. This home sold in 7 days for a median sale price was $697,500 – that translates to $450/sqft. Sellers negotiated 107% of the original list price.

Same week last year, the median home was smaller, with 3 beds, 2 baths and 1,344 square feet. In contrast, this home sold in 10 days for $575,000 – that’s $406/sqft and 100% of the original list price.

Interestingly, only 60 of the 70 homes sold over asking. (We say only, as the last few months have shown nearly 100% of homes selling over the asking price). It’s impossible to say if this is a sign of easing competition, or homes being priced more accurately for the market (i.e. not setting list prices deliberately low to encourage competition). Though our best guess is the latter, only time will tell. Keep an eye on this stat over the next few weeks!

You’ll find the details of the past week’s sales in the weekly reports, and if you’re not a subscriber, sign up at the bottom of this post to receive exclusive access to this sales data.

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Contact listing agents for inquiries & showings:

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