SPRING COOL DOWN

As the weather warms up, we’re seeing a much different trend in the Guelph real estate market. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been noticing a market that is a lot cooler when compared to the red hot start to the year.

The City of Guelph has seen 348 new listings so far this month (already above average for March), which seems to have pulled some of the fear of missing out from buyers, as there has been a palpable shift in the energy and activity in our local market. This influx of new listings is likely one of a number of factors coming together, including current world events, a recent increase in the Bank of Canada interest rate, and a lot of ugly late winter weather.

Regardless of which factors are most causal, there are clear signs that the market is shifting and that the needle is moving back towards equilibrium. I wouldn’t go as far as to call a buyer’s market anytime soon, but my sense is we’re approaching the “time out” that the market needs in order to settle down to a more reasonable level of activity.

So what are the signs we’re seeing?

In some parts of the market, we’re seeing a number of properties receiving zero offers on the designated offer date. We’re also noting less offers than we’re used on those properties that do get multiples. With that decrease in offers, our team and their clients have also been experiencing another barrier: properties listed well below the target sales price receive one offer (often, above list price) and the seller declines the offer, relisting the property at the actual expected sale price. A sign of shifting expectations in the marketplace, and a source of frustration as well.

What will be interesting to see at the end of the month is where the sales-to-list-price ratio ends up. So far this year, sellers have been seeing sales prices 10-15% above their list price, and it will be interesting to see if that measure matches our anecdotal expectations.

The good news for buyers is that inventory levels are building – and for those that stepped back from the market in January and February, the Spring Market might be the perfect time to get back to the house hunt. Judging by the energy in our office, a significant number of new listings are being readied for the April market as well. Certainly good news for buyers. The question now is: will sellers recognize the new direction in the market, and how long will it last?

During the decades I’ve been involved in the Guelph market, I’ve watched how markets change directions. Most times, there are the weeks and often months when old tactics are being used in new conditions with declining levels of success. It takes time before everyone finally recognizes that the market has shifted and adapts to the new conditions.

What does this mean for the spring market?

At this point it could go either way. The one thing I know for sure is that I don’t want to be on the sidelines for what could be the penultimate moment of this crazy market.

THE PAST WEEK IN THE GUELPH REAL ESTATE MARKET

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FEATURED PROPERTY

346 York Road, Guelph

3 BED / 1.5 BATH / 1,263 SQFT

Welcome to 346 York Road – a stone’s throw to Lyons Park and the Eramosa River. This gorgeous century home is nestled exactly where you want to be. With close proximity to Downtown and access to trails & nature literally just outside your door, the location cannot be beat! Parking is at the back of the property, down a private laneway (so no worries about backing out on to the road!). Coming in from the back you will enter into your fully fenced yard with new shed (2021) and spacious deck and walk right into your trendy beautifully decorated mudroom, with all the space to catch your busy family's coats, boots and backpacks! Inside, you will find all the charm of a century home you know and love with original hardwood flooring, high baseboards and trim – its easy to see why the second you walk in, you will completely fall in love! On the main floor you will notice the open formal dining room and large kitchen with lots of cabinetry. Upstairs are 3 great sized bedrooms with oversized closets and bathroom. Downstairs, you’ll find a spacious rec room area for the kids to play, plus a second bathroom.