IT’S ALL IN THE NUMBERS

July is upon us, and like the previous months since mid-March, each month has brought new numbers and COVID-19 asterisks.  

Let’s set the stage on this post.  The Guelph real estate market in April and May were in shutdown mode.  Yes, real estate was deemed an essential service – and that is essentially what transpired during those two months.  People that had to buy or sell in order to complete transactions in mid-stream were the priorities.  Anyone else looking to buy or sell was told to hang tight and wait for the situation to stabilize.  

We’re currently crunching the Q2 numbers and while they won’t be pretty, it will be an interesting story that needs to be told.  Stay tuned on that front for next week’s reports.

Today we’re taking a look at the June numbers – and they are a fascinating study in what’s possible.

June started off much the way May ended – hopeful.  We started to see a gradual return in activity.  New buyers and sellers were dipping a toe back into the real estate market and by week two, the results were very encouraging.  

June has been a banner month and exceeded all expectations:

  • Sales in Guelph for the month of June ran 19.2% ahead of June 2019; 255 homes sold vs. 214 the previous year

  • Days on Market dropped by 20% to 12 days

  • Sales Volume for the month of June was $156 million, compared to $117 million in June of 2019

  • Median Sales Price in Guelph this past month was $589,000, up 12.9% from $521,500 in June of 2019

Helping all these incredible numbers was the fact that inventory levels dropped almost 41%, from 2.2 months in 2019 to 1.3 months in 2020.  

None of us expected the market to come roaring back to the conditions we were experiencing in mid-March.  It’s like everyone took a 90 day holiday and then came back and said “let’s get back at it”.  Not to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic, I suspect people have decided that life needs to carry on and that included their housing arrangements.

Guelph Housing Market Report - 2020-06.png

So does CMHC and other industry experts have it wrong?  Is it fake news?

We’re not ready to start calling people out, as we are still in the thick of dealing with the pandemic.  I believe June’s numbers reflect that the people that knew their jobs and life situations were stable and not negatively affected by COVID-19 took advantage of the lull in the market to look after their housing needs.

The critical numbers to watch are still 60-90 days out.  As the mortgage deferrals wind down, it will be very interesting to watch what happens with mortgage defaults and the impact on our local market.

We had an in-depth discussion with Rob Campbell, one of our top mortgage brokers yesterday.  You can catch our latest episode of Talking with the Experts here. We discussed the CMHC qualification changes and the anticipated impact on the mortgage and real estate market, as well as the longer term implications that the pandemic may still have on the local real estate market.

I don’t think we’re out of the storm yet, and we likely will see some sort of pullback in the coming months.  However, given our local economic conditions, I’m not anticipating the 18% price drop as predicted by CMHC – at the same time, I’m not expecting the current upward trajectory to continue either.  


Our conclusion is that, like all real estate transactions, it's going to be complicated and highly personal.  Depending on your personal financial situation and security, the decision to sell or buy (from a long term perspective – 5 years or more) means any short term pull back in the market is certainly something that can be weathered.  A home, unlike your other investments, serves a dual purpose as shelter and a tool to build long term wealth.

Selling in this market means you have very little competition, lots of demand, and as a result, one of the strongest sellers markets we’ve seen in a long time.

Buying in this market can be a struggle, but 255 buyers last month managed to find their next home.  We might be sanitizing, masked and keeping our social distance, but the Guelph real estate market continues to march on.

If selling your home is in your future – whether it’s next month or next year – the selling process will likely be very different from your past experiences. Next Thursday, July 9th at 7:00PM EST, we are hosting a virtual info session for homeowners: Top 10 Questions Home Sellers Ask (About Selling During the Pandemic). We will be answering the most common questions our clients have about the selling process, including:

  • Are there any new fees or costs associated with selling during the pandemic?

  • Are buyers asking for any additional conditions in their offers?

  • What renovations and repairs should I do to attract today’s buyers?

The info session is in webinar format, so you can watch from your desktop or mobile device for free, plus you can ask questions in real time via the Q&A Chat. If you can’t tune in live, you can still register for the webinar and we will send you the recording afterwards.

Next week, we’ll take a deep dive into the 2nd Quarter results for Guelph and the surrounding region.

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