April 08, 2022

1ST QUARTER STATS

As we wrap up the first quarter of 2022 and head into the Spring Market, we’re surprised (and relieved!) to see early signs of a cooling market. In all four of our local urban markets – Guelph, Kitchener, Cambridge and Waterloo – we’re seeing market conditions drop from Hot Seller’s Markets (sales to new listings ratios over 80%) to Seller’s Markets (with current ratios landing at 71–72% across the region). Not exactly the balanced market we’d like to see further down the road, but still taking a significant step back from the red hot conditions we’ve been experiencing over the past months.

The number of new listings to the market is on par with the previous year (Q1 2021) and dramatically higher than the previous quarter (Q4 2021), which is to be expected in the normal rhythm of the year. As we enter Q2, we’d like to see new listings continue to flow into the market and hold that consistency through the year.

*(All residential properties in the City of Guelph from January 1st, 2021 to March 31st, 2022)*

While the number of new listings reflects a healthy start to the year, the number of homes sold signals a subtle shift in choice among buyers. We generally see times of very low inventory (such as Q4 2021) accompanied by high buyer competition (and with that, soaring prices and nonexistent offer conditions). As the gap between the number of new listings and the number of homes sold widens in Q1 2022, we see an immediate correlation in pricing: the median sale price has plateaued since it peaked at $915,000 in January, and now rests at $906,000 at the end of March. Not that we expect to see significant price drops anytime soon, but a levelling out in terms of price increases would provide some much needed relief for buyers.

It’s worth noting a growing trend as the market evolves: properties are listed, receive zero offers on the offer date (or, no offers that prove satisfactory to the seller), and are then cancelled and relisted, often at a new price. In the month of March, 81properties were cancelled – that’s one fifth as many homes as were listed that month. Perhaps a sign of a shifting marketplace as buyers and sellers alike navigate pricing strategies.

The big question is: will these trends be sustained? Will we see new listings continue to flow into the marketplace as we enter the heart of the Spring Market, or has the spring peak begun early this year? In the coming months, we’ll be keeping an eye on inventory levels – and hopefully, we’ll be looking up.