The Guelph Weekly Sales Report:

Take 4

This is the fourth draft in less than 24 hours as I try to write something meaningful that contributes to the economic conversation around Guelph real estate.

So Wednesday afternoon Trump reversed most of his tariffs, with the exception of China, in a response to the horrific bashing the equity markets were experiencing. We’ve seen this before. In his first term he started throwing tariffs out only to reverse some of them and keep others in place. This tragic play has been reprised with the latest round of tariff threats.

What should our lesson be from all of this?

We need to control the part of our world that we can control and minimize the disruption from outside players like Trump.

I read an interesting article this past week from Dave Gamble, the Portfolio manager of Terra Cotta Wealth, titled “When Defense Wins the Game”. He talks about the period leading up to the first week of April.

“There are times when staying cautious can feel a little out of step with the broader market. Over the past year, as much of the investing world leaned into momentum and headline-driven rallies, we chose a different route—one that prioritized stability, cash flow, and diversification beyond traditional public markets.

Fast forward to today, and the recent pullback in equities has been a reminder that risk doesn’t disappear, even in a rising market. Since March 5th, the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 10%. While we don’t try to predict short-term moves, we do build portfolios that are prepared for them.“

He then goes on to talk about how they’ve built a defensive strategy around real, resilient assets such as REITs, Mortgage Investment Corps and Private equity and debt to even buying into music royalty funds.

I might add that this is where real estate as an investment class would also fit into a defensive strategy. Residential real estate isn’t just about short-term security; it’s also a long-term wealth builder. Historically, real estate values tend to increase over time, outpacing inflation once economic conditions stabilize. For example, post-pandemic housing booms witnessed significant price spikes across Canadian cities, Guelph most certainly included, setting new benchmarks for residential properties.

When paired with economic recovery mechanisms like low interest rates, real estate investments made during a downturn can yield exceptional returns as markets rebound. Investors who purchased properties during Ontario’s mild housing dips from 2019 to 2020 saw property values rise rapidly in subsequent years when pent-up demand pushed the market to record highs.

Why Real Estate Has “Intrinsic Value”

Unlike some assets subject to market psychology, bubbles, or erratic demand, residential real estate is grounded in tangible value. A property represents not just a financial investment but a physical asset tied to land and structure. This intrinsic worth is less likely to depreciate entirely, making residential real estate a reliable hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, or other economic shocks.

The necessity of shelter gives real estate its “stickiness.” For example, even when asset portfolios shrink, people continue to prioritize housing payments over other discretionary spending. This stable demand provides a floor for real estate valuations, even in difficult times.

For potential homebuyers, investing in residential property offers not just a place to live but also a protection strategy against uncertain economic conditions. Home equity often grows steadily, providing a financial cushion that can be leveraged during emergencies. First-time buyers who purchase properties in buyer-friendly markets also reap long-term benefits when economic conditions improve.

For aspiring investors, residential properties present an attractive alternative to riskier asset classes. Even if broader real estate markets cool, focusing on areas with strong population growth, job opportunities, or proximity to key amenities ensures that properties can weather downturns and attract tenants quickly.

On April 2, 2025, also known as Liberation Day to the Trump administration, a global trade war was launched by the US.

Dave Gamble writes: “The United States took a dramatic and reckless step by announcing a new wave of global tariffs. This broad-brush approach, targeting nearly all major trading partners, risks turning the U.S. into a common adversary rather than a valued ally in global commerce. In a world that thrives on collaboration and integrated supply chains, attempting to isolate the U.S. through protectionism not only drives inflation but also encourages other countries to deepen their own bilateral and multilateral trade agreements—without the U.S. at the table.

This kind of aggressive policy-making erodes trust and undermines decades of diplomacy. We're already seeing early signs that key trading blocs, including the European Union and Southeast Asian nations, are pivoting toward each other to strike deals that prioritize mutual respect and economic cooperation. The message is simple: if the U.S. insists on treating everyone as a rival, the world will move on without it. Meanwhile, American consumers will bear the cost, as tariffs inflate the price of goods ranging from appliances to groceries.

And contrary to the promises, those manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back. Manufacturing job losses have been due to automation, efficiency gains, and America’s addiction to inexpensive goods made from cheap labour. The real threat now for the U.S. is that by burning bridges instead of making them stronger, the U.S. could be sidelined in a new era of global trade forged by nations willing to work with, and not against, each other. ”

Some might argue that given the reckless and constant change coming out of the US government, we should probably sit on the sidelines and wait for the chaos to subside before doing anything.

While you can never totally eliminate risk in a market place or a decision, we can’t indefinitely wait for a situation to change. People need to get on with their lives and most will. I’ve written about the 8 D’s (issue 452) of real estate buyers and sellers before in this space. People will buy and sell real estate regardless of the economy and overall market conditions, because they have to and need to. These are the people that will be rewarded in the market when things do settle down.

Final Thoughts

At Keller Williams Home Group Realty, our group of highly trained professional agents are constantly on the lookout for opportunities that suit our clients’ needs and wants. We help our clients with detailed market research and negotiating strategies to help hedge risk and maximize opportunity. Book a consultation with us today.

The ancient Chinese blessing and curse is, may you live in interesting times. That said, with the right strategies and attitude, the times may be interesting- but they don’t have to be unsettling.

Stay tuned… and enjoy the weekend.

Paul

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