October 03, 2019

October 4, 2019 Sales Summary:

DIGGING DEEP INTO Q3 2019

Predictions are an interesting phenomenon. Last year for Q3 we reported the median sales price of all home types was $480,000, and at the time we commented we felt Guelph was a couple of years away from breaking the half million dollar community. It would appear that the Guelph real estate market took exception to the prediction and as a result the median home price in Guelph rose by 8.9% over the past year blowing through the $500K sales price like it was 2017 all over again!

The summer quarter is usually a slower time to sell and compared to Q2 of this year it's a fair statement. The number of listings and sales between Q2 and Q3 2019 dropped by 18% and 14% respectively. However, compared to the same quarter in 2018 our numbers are up modestly which in our opinion supports the bullish market conditions that continue to exist in Guelph and other markets outside the GTA.

We have mentioned before that historically the real estate market in Guelph over the long term has had a pretty consistent growth rate of 6%. Our year over year results to date are showing an increase of 8.9% in the median sales price to $522,500.

When compared to 2018, 2019 numbers have all shown positive growth for Guelph with the exception of Days on Market. Last year we reported the median home took 17 days to sell and this year that number is 18 days. While we are not likely to see price growth back in the double digits anytime soon, 6-8% annual growth in sales price is not inconsequential.

Our Predictions:

The fourth quarter is traditionally the weakest segment of the year for real estate. The federal parties have put their campaign platforms out with respect to real estate and how they intend to address entry level and affordability issues. Not a lot of innovation or new ideas that really stand out. We don’t expect the election to have a major impact on the current market conditions. Guelph’s real estate market is likely to maintain current conditions, albeit at a reduced pace. This means buyers will continue to deal with lower inventory levels and higher levels of competition for homes in the most affordable price points. We expect 2019 will finish stronger than 2018 and likely closer to the long term average. Boring, yes.

Market Highlights:

Over the past quarter 10 homes sold over the $1M mark, with the luxury segment (which in our definition is over $700K) accounting for 92 or 15% of the home sales.

Last year we noted that only 2 detached homes sold under $300K. This year we see that zero detached homes sold under $300K and only 3 homes trading under $350K. This gives you a better sense of how quickly the entry level of the detached market has increased over the past 12-18 months.

The Past Week in the Guelph Real Estate Market:

This past week 55 homes sold in Guelph and the surrounding two townships, up 19.6% over the same week last year. 36.4% of the homes sold went at or above list price, well below the 48% reported last year. The median home of 1,340 square feet sold for $530,000 after 16 days on the market. We’re creeping closer and closer to $400/sqft in this market. Sellers were able to negotiate 98.82% of their original list price. Still very strong numbers that we don’t expect to change for the foreseeable future.

Enjoy the weekend.

Paul