Well, That's Interesting - Part Two

The neat thing about writing a blog is going back through the archives and look at some of the past articles.

Last year this week I wrote about stepping back from the noise and looking at the market from a higher level.

The data then showed a steady, albeit, slow increase in the number of homes available for sale and suggested that we expected the number of homes available to keep climbing and that would regulate prices to a degree.  

Where to start.  We were wrong and we were right.  

So what really happened?  

The chart below summarizes the Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) for our market for the month of May 2018 and 2019:

	Months of Inventory	Months of Inventory	Houses for sale	Houses for sale	Houses sold	Houses sold	Days on Market	Days on Market
	2018	2019	2018	2019	2018	2019	2018	2019
Guelph	2.1	2.0	370	355	244	266	18	19
Guelph/Eramosa	5.1	4.6	55	53	17	21	18	16
Puslinch	5.9	6.2	32	55	8	24	12	27

Let’s start with Guelph.  Inventory levels dropped 4.8% to 2 months.  The number of homes available for sale was down by 4.1% to 355 from 370.  However, that’s still 30% more homes available in 2019 than in 2017. Puslinch TWP essentially followed the script.  The number of homes for sale increased, which increased the months of inventory and days on market all significantly.  Home sales also increased significantly in Puslinch which goes to show that there are still a lot of buyers looking to be in rural and suburban communities around Guelph. 

Home sales in Guelph for 2019 are up almost 19% from 2018.  Guelph was the laggard in this category as Puslinch sales are up 200% from the same month last year, Guelph-Eramosa TWP is up 23.5%.  Clearly this market still has legs given the significant increases.  

Last year I predicted a market that would look like a roller coaster.  The roller coaster ride has been pretty smooth.  Yes, there have been ups and downs. Nothing like 2017 which is a good thing overall.  NAFTA and a change in provincial government here in Ontario didn’t affect the Guelph real estate market in the negative way that it could have.  We are still seeing a net migration of home buyers moving into the Guelph and are market with many of them coming from the GTA.  All conditions that have kept home sales and prices growing. 

Predictions for the next 12 months?  More of the same in my opinion.  We have a federal election this fall, Trump is still acting like a bull in a china shop, which in my opinion will keep things interesting but not necessarily affect our real estate market in a negative way.  

People seem to be getting better at filtering out the noise and chaos brought on by the internet and social media and making decisions based upon their own personal conditions and security.  That in my opinion will keep our market stable and healthy.  

This past week in the Guelph and district real estate market looked like this:

59 homes were reported sold, with 28 or 47.5% of the homes sold going at or above list price.  The median home was 1441 sqft sold for $515,000 took 13 days to sell and seller’s negotiated 99.72% of their original list price.  

Compared to the same week last year, we reported 57 homes sold with 26 or 45.6% selling at or above list price. The median home in the first week of June 2018 was 1367 sqft sold for $495,000 took 17 days and sellers were able to negotiate 98.59% of their original list price.  

That’s the kind of week it’s been in the Guelph real estate market.  

Enjoy the weekend.