Tire marks going in different directions
09/02/2018

Gin, Snow, and the Guelph Real Estate Market

Issue: 89 February 9, 2018

Guelph Weekly Sales Reports

I love Guelph!  

What other small city features an incredible collection of talented and creative people?  

HGR is the local independent brokerage amongst a sea of national and international brands.  Our Fiercely local team prides itself on using local talent and suppliers to help us market homes in our area.  We also love supporting and promoting other local independent firms.

Last night we held a team event at one of our favourite local artisan’s shops: Dixon’s Distilled Spirits on Elmira Rd.  Nothing beats sampling still warm gin as it drips down from the still.  

Jeremie Dixon, one of the ringleaders at Dixon’s, lead the team through a detailed tour and lecture on the art and skill it takes to distill fine spirits.  I don’t think he was expecting the questions from our team on the process, especially from our resident sustainability and homesteader pro John Gaida.  We came away from the event educated, entertained, and proud to be a supporter of another fine Guelph Artisan.  

You actually might want to grab your favourite beverage as we try to make sense of this week in the Guelph real estate market.  


Let’s get the numbers out there – 34 homes sold this past week, down considerably from the 57 homes sold the same week in 2017.  That’s a 40% reduction from this time last year.  56% of last week’s sales went at or above list price, down considerably from the scorching 79% selling above list price last year.  Overall market activity is down 40%, the median price is $28,000 above last year’s number and we still have over 50% of the market place selling at or above list price.  This market is as jumpy as an over-caffeinated, hyper active programmer!  

The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) reported their January sales numbers were off by over 40% as well.  The “saving grace” there was that condo apartment sales continue to be very strong and outperform the rest of the GTA market.  Their inventory levels in detached homes were up considerably which would logically explain the price drop.  

So, what about Guelph? Our inventory levels have dropped again, prices are still high, sales have dropped off, and yet we still seem to have a lot of people competing for these houses.   I would have expected a huge influx of new listings to the market as sellers would jump in to take advantage of the high prices and large number of buyers available.  

Our January Guelph Housing report has just been released.  You can see last month’s numbers and how they compared to January 2017.  It’s an interesting picture.  

 

I understand there’s a lot of uncertainty in the world today.  The bull on Wall Street finally appears to have run itself to the ground.  The UK is looking to start a round of interest rate hikes, and the US has similar thoughts going on as their economy has been revving up as well.

Interesting times indeed!

My take on this –  We will eventually see prices in our market retreat.  It’s inevitable.  As interest rates go up, the GTA market will continue to slow and “normalize” which means we’ll see less buyers from that area coming here.  This has to eventually affect our market and numbers.  

There’s an opportunity for sellers to take advantage of this inflection point in the Guelph market.  If you’ve got some risk tolerance, selling today with a 3-4 month closing means you could have time to wait for the market to adjust and buy as it settles lower.  Some savings, probably and a strong likelihood of a lot more inventory to pick from.  

Enjoy the weekend.

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Home Group Realty Leadership Team