February 04, 2022

JANUARY STATS

As we wrap up the first month of the new year, there were no major surprises in our local real estate markets. We generally see a drop in activity during the holidays and a surge of new listings to the market as we move into the new year. January 2022’s activity levels look similar to the previous two years, with a market temperature still hot, but less so than the shocking 101% sales to new listings ratio we saw this time last year.

Inventory continues to be our main focus in this market – because while the number of new listings appears healthy, what lies below the surface is an ever-depleting inventory of homes: this past month’s number of active listings, 120, is up from a dangerously low 106 the previous year, but lags far behind the home inventory levels of previous years (189 in January 2020, 282 in January 2019 – and looking back ten years, 335 homes were available for sale in January of 2012).

*(All residential properties in the City of Guelph from January 1st, 2017 to January 31st, 2022)*

With a new year comes new price increases – an 11% month-over-month increase in median sale price from December in the City of Guelph, and we’re seeing similar numbers throughout the region. With unwavering buyer demand, we expect to see sale prices jump slightly during months of low inventory – and historically, December carries the lowest inventory of the year. As we move into the new year and inventory begins to grow, we expect the rate of price increase to level out. January 2021 saw a month-over-month median sale price increase of 11%, February 4%, March 2%, and April 0%. With the number of new listings up 10% over January 2021 and nearly double what we saw in December 2021 (92%), we expect that this month’s double-digit price increase to soften as we move towards the spring market.

When looking at sales data from low activity periods – such as the annual lull we see around the holidays – we take into consideration that results based on a small number of homes may not be entirely representative of broader market trends. As an example, we saw an 11% month-over-month price increase from December 2021 to January 2022, but taking a closer look at which homes are selling takes a bit of weight out of that price increase. In the month of December, the median home sold was a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,500 sqft property, while January’s median home was slightly larger, with 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom, 1,514 sqft.

A variety of factors contribute to home pricing, and we stress to our clients not to rely solely on market stats if they are considering buying or selling – working with a knowledgeable REALTOR® early on is the best way to set realistic expectations in our ever-changing market, and ultimately, make their real estate dreams a reality.